Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy - Audencia Access content directly
Journal Articles Applied Economics Year : 2017

Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy


This article proposes a uncertainty composite indicator (UCI) based on three distinct sources of uncertainty (namely financial, political, and macroeconomic) for the US economy on the period 1985–2015. For that, we use a dynamic factor model, summarizing efficiently six individual uncertainty proxies, namely two macroeconomic and financial uncertainty factors based on the unpredictability, a measure of (micro)economic uncertainty, the implied volatility index, the corporate bond spreads, and an index of economic policy uncertainty. We then compare the effects of uncertainty on economic activity when the UCI is used instead of individual uncertainty proxies in structural VAR models. The interest of our UCI is to synthesize theses effects within one measure of uncertainty. Overall, the UCI was able to account for the most important dynamics of uncertainty which play an important role in business cycles.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Charles-Darne-Tripier_AE_HAL.pdf (478.34 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)

Dates and versions

hal-01549625 , version 1 (28-06-2017)



Amélie Charles, Olivier Darné, Fabien Tripier. Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator. Applied Economics, 2017, 50 (10), pp.1093-1107. ⟨10.1080/00036846.2017.1349294⟩. ⟨hal-01549625⟩
322 View
1132 Download



Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More