Corporate failure prediction in the European energy sector: A multicriteria approach and the effect of country characteristics

Michalis Doumpos (1) , Kostas Andriosopoulos (2) , Emilios Galariotis (3) , Georgia Makridou , Constantin Zopounidis (1)

1 Technical University of Crete [Chania]
2 ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris
3 Audencia Business School

This study examines the development of corporate failure prediction models for European firms in the energy sector, using a large dataset from 18 countries. The construction of the models is based on a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) approach taking into account both ordinal criteria and nominal country-sector effects. The analysis is based on different modeling specifications. First, traditional financial variables are examined, which are then extended with additional country-level data related to the economic and business environment, as well as data about the energy efficiency policies of the countries and the characteristics of their energy markets and networks. The results indicate that energy-related attributes have high discriminating power and add valuable information compared to the other attributes.

Keywords: Multiple criteria analysis. Financial distress. Energy sector. Energy management

Domains: Humanities and Social Sciences; Business administration

Michalis Doumpos, Kostas Andriosopoulos, Emilios Galariotis, Georgia Makridou, Constantin Zopounidis. Corporate failure prediction in the European energy sector: A multicriteria approach and the effect of country characteristics. European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 262 (1), pp.347 - 360. ⟨10.1016/j.ejor.2017.04.024⟩. ⟨hal-01578092⟩