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A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928

Abstract : This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790-1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2008). The resulting chronology alters more than 50% percent of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Davis (2006)'s chronologies, especially during the antebellum period, and removes those cycles long considered the most questionable, as growth or industrial cycles. An important result of the new chronology is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of US business cycles among the antebellum and postbellum periods. We also find that the average frequency and duration of contractions are less important than those of expansions.
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Amélie Charles, Olivier Darné, Claude Diebolt. A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928. Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34 (1), pp.234-244. ⟨hal-01122519⟩



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